Screener

Holiday movies to bring joy to end-of-year revelers

Moviegoing during the holidays is more than just a way to pass time off from school and work: it's a tradition.  What better way to break up family tension than seeing a movie together--especially at a multiplex, where disagreeing groups can choose different movies?  This year the usual mix of popcorn and awards fare will swoop into theatres tomorrow and again on Christmas Day, adding to the already heaping offerings, including mega-budget Avatar.

Tomorrow, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel will roll out in 3,700 theatres.  The original opened a couple weeks before Christmas to a $44 million weekend, and did big business through the holidays.  With animated competitor The Princess and the Frog fading, and a media campaign that includes a hilarious chipmunk rendition of Beyonce's "Single Ladies," the comedy is sure to appeal to adults (perhaps the ones that create YouTube videos of their children dancing to the song).

The other big crowd pleaser is Sherlock Holmes, which targets a big chunk of Avatar's audience.  Robert Downey, Jr. and Jude Law play "action heroes in a tale stripped of modulations, intelligence and finesse."  Having seen the movie a few weeks ago, my memory of the film is not aging well.  The action set pieces feel worn and unoriginal, including a cliched standoff on an unfinished bridge.  Much of the set design is filled in with CG, and the movie lacks the satisfying details that fill out our understanding of Holmes' world and character.  Nevertheless, marrying action sensibilities to a historical character will make Holmes and Watson fresh with no chance of being mistaken for "Masterpiece Theatre."  The comic-action movie will draw action-hungry crowds when it debuts in 3,600 theatres.

Adult romantic comedy It's Complicated will open on the small side on Christmas Day, 2,800 theatres.  The movie has received heavy media coverage, including a director profile in the New York Times Magazine about making movies for women.  With its erudite interest, the movie could be a mainstream choice for audiences normally drawn to awards and specialty fare.

The holiday season is also time for specialty releases to open wide to take advantage of the increased attendance.  Awards favorite Up In the Air will expand to 1,800 theatres, and Nine to 1,500.  Up in the Air has been steadily climbing in the rankings, breaking into the top ten for the past two weeks, so its expansion should lead to an uptick in its box office and ranking.  Nine, only out for one week, will be more of a wild card.  Will female audiences choose It's Complicated over Nine?

Also sneaking into the holiday schedule will be the debut of "cinematically sophisticated but slow-moving police procedural," Police, Adjective, in IFC theatres.  The Young Victoria will expand to 134 theatres.  The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, which features a performance from Heath Ledger, will also debut on Christmas Day.  The Lovely Bones and A Single Man will also add theatres to their run.  With a crowded slate of film delicacies, one hopes that people will have the time to sample more than one holiday offering.

Screener is off to drink some eggnog, so we'll see you back on December 28th with a recap of holiday box office performance.

Oh Avatar, oh Avatar, lead audiences to Pandora

Leading the pack this week is Avatar (3,300 theatres), a blockbuster that delivers on its promise to wow you.  Even if you come into the theatre a little bit of a disbeliever, you will walk out thrilled and satisfied in a way you haven't been for a long time.  Director James Cameron uses his state-of-the-art technology to create a movie that critic Ethan Alter called "the ultimate pulp sci-fi novel."  It's also a take-off of the Pocahontas tale.  Cameron first wows you with the technical achievements of the year 2154--portable computer tablets, futuristic 'copters, and coffin-like "link stations"--before turning your attention to the Na'vi, who display a similarly detailed, technical mastery over the natural world instead of the mechanical world.  Add in romance and some spectacular battle scenes, and Fox should have its end-of-year blockbuster.

Providing some counterprogramming for women, Did You Hear About the Morgans? (2,700 theatres) is a by-the-book romantic comedy with some mild laughs.  Inoffensive and pleasing through its duration, the movie is expected to draw in females not enticed by Avatar.  Fans of "Sex and the City" will be pleased to see a continuation of that persona in Parker's character, who loves all things New York City, to the predictably comic extremes.

Crazy Heart (4 theatres) also makes its limited debut this weekend.  "Although the film offers the [lead] character a too-glib redemption (and no-fuss rehab) before sending him off into a feel-good sunset," critic Rex Roberts feels it nevertheless deserves recognition.  Indeed, this week the country music drama earned two nominations at the Golden Globes: Best Actor for Jeff Bridges and Best Original Song.  Bridges has been nominated for four Oscars (though, surprise, not for his role in the comedy The Big Lebowski), so the Academy may deem it time to reward ones of its perennial nominees-- one with "an uncanny ability to make pot-bellied rogues curiously sexy."

Nine (4 theatres) parades into theatres after receiving decidedly mixed reviews filled with many of the caveats that are unique to the difficult musical category.  Despite running at 32% on Rotten Tomatoes, the Broadway adaptation received five nominations for the Golden Globes earlier this week.  Our critic David Noh marveled at the non-misogynistic treatment of women in a story centered around a man and the many women who matter to him.  "Marshall clearly adores women," Noh writes, "and he glorifies each carefully cast lady in his film in a way not seen since the Hollywood studio glory days."

Avatar should finish in the 50, 60, 70 million range (Fox is trying to underplay expectations) and play strongly through the next two weeks, when many people are on holiday from work and school.  Did You Hear About the Morgans? should be light competition, and could suffer from the strong showing of The Blind Side, which has a lot of word-of-mouth momentum.  Avatar needs a strong opening weekend to stave off the competition ahead.  Next week, the sci-fi movie will go head-to-head with Sherlock Holmes, It's Complicated will try to woo away the female audience, and let's not forget the allure of Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.

'The Princess and the Frog' to charm its way to box-office crown

South Africa and the Bayou will take center stage this weekend, as Invictus and The Princess and the Frog roll out in wide release.

The Princess and the Frog (3,434 theatres) is the Disney machine at its nostalgic finest--which includes incredible attention to detail, especially when it comes to possible revenue streams.  For the past two and a half weeks, the movie has racked up $2.7 million by creating a full-fledged event involving character meet-and-greets, behind-the-scenes glimpses, and the opportunity to stock up on Princess-related merchandising--all for $50 per head.  Only Disney could pull together its filmmaking, theme park, and merchandising experience so well.  The movie itself should make a killing, especially since many of those who grew up on Beauty and the Beast are now parents themselves.  It's expected to open around $25 million, but the strength of its reviews, including an 82% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, could give families that extra push to see it in theatres.

Invictus (2,125 theatres) is expected to open modestly but keep up its pace for many weeks ahead.  Positive reviews, along with a 76% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, should reward the historical drama at the box office as well as the Oscars, though the first category, in this case, is a little more tricky.  Our critic Daniel Eagan praised the film as "one of the most mature and satisfying releases of the year," but cautioned that its "challenging subject matter and a crowded holiday marketplace" could see it end up more like Million Dollar Baby than Gran Torino.

The Lovely Bones will roll out in three theatres before expanding over Christmas and then again in mid-January.  I posted my scathing assessment of the film yesterday, joining the critical chorus of dissent.  According to executive editor Kevin Lally, director Peter Jackson's "expensive production and dazzling visual effects aren’t the ideal fit for [author Alice] Sebold’s delicate, poignant tale," and the "admittedly impressive but overdone fantasy panoramas" take away the "heart and soul" of the novel.  While many of those who read the book will turn out for the movie, they will rank among the most disappointed.  By delaying a wide open until early January, however, the movie may be able to take advantage of being a film of its relative quality amidst the January slush.

Fashion designer-turned-director Tom Ford makes his debut with A Single Man, a quiet, expressive film about mourning.  Colin Firth plays a closeted gay professor left alone when his partner dies in a car accident.  With no one to mourn with, and few understanding the depth of his despair, he goes through a defining day of odd encounters and personal evaluation.  Ford's presence is seen in the attentive costuming, changing color palette, and set design, which manages to add something new to the way most movies portray the 1960s (a glimpse of some black-wearing 60s college-age Goths, for example).  The movie opens in nine theatres and should set audiences abuzz.

On Monday, The Princess and the Frog will know the expanse of her reign, Invictus will battle for opening weekend dollars, and holdovers The Blind Side and New Moon will prepare for a dip after three weeks at the top.

Adult family dramas take center stage with 'Brothers,' 'Everybody's Fine'

Despite all the new offerings this weekend, New Moon and The Blind Side are expected to hold the top spots.  But that doesn't mean the rest of the films won't fight for their spots as we head into the competitive holiday season.

Brothers (2,088 theatres), a love triangle with a wartime focus, is poised to capture a younger version of The Blind Side's audience.  It's showing strong interest among young females under 25 that idolize stars Natalie Portman, Jake Gyllenhaal and Tobey Maguire.  The  war angle may help draw in their male companions, just as The Blind Side shared its tale of compassion with a male-friendly sports angle.

Everybody's Fine (2,133 theatres) is a quiet film that needs to make some noise.  However, with its distributor, Miramax, crumbling back into Disney, and a Robert DeNiro considerably calmer than his gruff Meet the Parents persona, this movie is Most Likely to Get Lost in a Crowd.  Still, this movie presents its offerings quite well, despite being "dramatically a bit thin," according to Executive Editor Kevin Lally.

Up in the Air won Best Picture from the National Board of Review yesterday, an auspicious way to start its run in ten theatres.  George Clooney plays a jet-setting corporate downsizer (he fires other people's employees for a living) but somehow director Jason Reitman manages to make this plotline fit into our current recession economy.  Not since Jerry Maguire waved to his ex while on a moving walkway has the mix of blasé glamour and isolation in airport travel been captured so well.

Rounding out the week's releases are the standard action and horror offerings.  Armored (1,915 theatres) is about the ultimate inside job: the drivers of armored trucks helping themselves to the stacks of money in cargo. Transylmania (1,005 theatres) is a horror spoof that should appeal to a younger crowd.  Unlike the more gruesome Hostel, this movie is about a group of students spending a semester abroad who discover their university is infested with vampires.

On Monday, we'll check back to see if Up in the Air's box office is as winning as its Best Picture award, if Everybody's Fine was able to raise itself above a whisper, and if Brothers can stand up to The Blind Side.

'New Moon' to bring fangirls to the box office

The Twilight Saga: New Moon will open in over 4,000 theatres at midnight, 600 more screens than the first Twilight.  Movietickets.com reported that over 2,150 screenings of the vampire romance have sold out, and the film has surpassed franchise films like Lord of the Rings and Harry Potter to become their  #1 advance seller of all time.  The reviews are coming in, but it's doubtful the fan base will even care.  This movie is all about reliving the book with the added visuals of Robert Pattinson and Taylor Lautner, and the swoons and shrieks of your friends and fellow audience members.  Plus, the sequel combines Vampire-mania with Werewolf-mania, throwing heroine Bella into a love triangle between the two man-creatures.

The Blind Side, which many have called Precious with a white, Republican savior (and thus appealing to that demographic) will open in 3,100 theatres. Sandra Bullock is in top form, but critic Michael Rechtshaffen wished that "Oher [the black homeless teen Bullock's character and her husband took in] had been presented as something other than essentially a large prop."  Further separating itself from a movie like Precious, The Blind Side sticks to "proven inspirational sports-movie/fish-out-of-water formulas while holding the inherent sociological issues to the sidelines," despite the fact that "there also was room for more thought-provoking substance."

Planet 51 (2,600 theatres), a kind of E.T. in reverse, revolves around an astronaut who has landed in a suburban alien town.  Grade-school joke: they think he's the one who's funny looking.  The "Sci-Fi Lite" movie, according to critic Kirk Honeycutt, has "gentle jokes and cornball battles," and is geared more towards children than the adult-children mix more frequently seen in today's animated movies.

Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans opens in 27 theatres, and if you are near one--you need to see it.  Genre-wise, it's a story of a corrupt cop (Nicolas Cage) in love with a prostitute (Eva Mendes), but director Werner Herzog takes this story places you have never even imagined.  The screening I was in prompted several moments where everyone broke out in shocked laughter--whether it was because Cage was so outrageously bad, mad-scientist crazy, or because the movie did things you just aren't supposed to do on film, including alligator point-of-view shots.

Also moving into theatres on Friday is Red Cliff.  Directed by John Woo, the American version compresses the two-film arc into one historical epic critic Daniel Eagan called "teeming with characters and plot twists," but "told in such a direct and vigorous style that it is never confusing."

New Moon is the hands-down winner for this weekend, but its narrower fan base is always a liability.  Everyone will be watching to see how much the film drops Saturday and Sunday after its Friday open.  Precious and Fantastic Mr. Fox will be expanding this runs, and Planet 51 needs to bring in audiences before The Princess and the Frog opens over Thanksgiving (though, thankfully, in a limited run).

'2012' to blow up at the box office

Today, 2012  will bring disaster to 3,404 theatres nationwide.  Filled with unbelievable near-death escapes, and a survival mechanism called the "atomic-age equivalent of Noah's ark," the movie's strong suit is that it doesn't take itself too seriously.  With this framework, the implausibilities go down much easier.  While crowds will turn out for the special effects, the disaster theme is getting old.  Add in the recession, and the movie could play either way: "My world is already collapsing, so why bother to see civilization collapse?" or "Well, I should see it.  It will remind me things could be worse."  The doom-and-gloom spectacle is expected to open at $40 million.

A movie rescued and repackaged from its unsuccessful British release, Pirate Radio, will open in 882 theatres.  Previously titled The Boat That Rocked, it bowed to a disappointing run in Britain at a considerably bloated running time.  It was given to Focus Features, edited, and re-marketed, so its performance will be a reflection of the success of Focus' efforts.

Joining Where the Wild Things Are as a kiddie movie with a hipster, adult feel, Fantastic Mr. Fox opens in four theatres (NY/LA) before expanding in coming weeks.  The stop-motion animated film employs a style less like Coraline and more like Rudolph the Red-Nosed Reindeer: deliberately stilted.  Our critic Ethan Alter called it "not necessarily...a great children's movie, but...a pretty fantastic Wes Anderson film."  Having seen it myself, I can say it's fun to see Wes Anderson's signature style--his straight-on framing and penchant for stylized dialogue, to name two--melded with writer Roald Dahl's material and presented in stop-motion animation.  By drawing in (perhaps confused) children, families, and adult Wes Anderson fans, the movie stands to make a buck without having to rob the three biggest chicken producers in town.

Opening in four theatres in New York and Washington D.C., The Messenger has already drawn warm reviews from critics, a promising sign given critic Justin Lowe's warning that the "delicate subject matter could be a tough sell in a marketplace still averse to accounts of the conflict; careful handling is required."  By "gingerly [probing] wounds that are still healing with admirable empathy and insight," this war-themed film appeals both to soldiers and military families as well as those isolated from the impact of the U.S.'s wars.

Also opening today is William Kunstler: Disturbing the Universe (New York/Boston), a documentary about the civil rights lawyer who alienated almost everyone--including his two young daughters--when he started defending those guilty in the eyes of the American public, including an accused terrorist. 

The kind of movie I would have enjoyed in high school, Dare, debuts today in New York and L.A.  Though critic James Greenberg predicted most people won't see the movie until it hits cable, the high school-set movie is "a smart and well-observed entry in the genre [and] a cut above the usual hijinks."

On Monday, we'll see what kind of damage 2012 did on the box office, if Pirate Radio's re-marketing paid off, and if last week's big winner, Precious: Based on the Story 'Push' by Sapphire, can sustain its performance as it expands to 174 theatres.

Tis the (early) season for 'A Christmas Carol'

Despite opening nearly two months before the holiday,  A Christmas Carol  will roll out in 3,683 theatres, including 2,050 3D screens, 141 of which are IMAX.  The movie is expected to earn in the $25-$35 million range.  As the holiday season approaches, it should pick up even more business, though it will lose 3D screens once Avatar releases on December 18th.  Our critic and executive editor Kevin Lally called the movie "Dickens for the ADD generation," noting "[director Robert] Zemeckis’ penchant for rollercoaster-like 3D action" seems tailored for a "videogame-nurtured audience."  To each generation, their own. (I count myself among the Mickey's Christmas Carol generation)

Two horror-thriller-sci-fi movies will battle at the box office this weekend: The Box (2,635 theatres) and The Fourth Kind (2,529 theatres).  Neither has accumulated much acclaim.  In an effort to punch up The Box, which was originally a short story about a simple choice ("If you open this box, you will receive $1 million and someone will die"), director Richard Kelly created a convoluted plot that "winds its way through suspense, psychological thriller, science fiction, conspiracy theory and horror genres with an overlay of Christian religious motifs and a dab of existentialism." Wow.  The Fourth Kind follows Paranormal Activity by purporting to show real events--case studies of people who were abducted by aliens.  The trailer is pretty frightening, but critic Michael Rechtshaffen found "the gimmick proves more distracting than disturbing."

The Men Who Stare at Goats (2,443 theatres) is a light war romp about a reporter who discovers the  U.S. Government sponsored a unit to try to investigate the use of psychic powers for combat.  Unfortunately, the movie includes one scene where a soldier is given LSD and starts firing shots into a crowded military courtyard, only to put the gun in his mouth to kill himself.  Because of yesterday's military shooting, audiences may not be able to flip back to comedy so soon after seeing such an eerily similar event.  However, the older-skewing satire is expected to play well for several weeks in an open field for comedies, so this should not be the death knell for the movie, especially given George Clooney's spot-on performance.

Budding awards favorite, Precious: Based on the Novel 'Push' by Sapphire, is opening in 18 theatres.  While most specialty films will open in a mix of multiplexes and arthouses, Precious is debuting in multiplexes and theatres in primarily African- American neighborhoods.  In New York, it's playing in Harlem.  In Los Angeles, it's playing in Crenshaw.  The movie has already drawn a wave of controversy, with many critical of reviews and cries of racism being thrown around.  Not only is the movie powerful and violent, but it opens up a dialogue about race that incites incredible emotion.  With its disenfranchised child in the lead and the resulting social critique (including that of exploitation), this movie is the Slumdog Millionaire of '09.  Just don't presume it ends up with Precious winning a million dollars.

'This Is It' to thrill audiences through Halloween weekend

When Halloween falls on a weekend, the box office usually suffers, with the exception of horror movies.  The choice between trick-or-treating and seeing a movie is pretty obvious for most people.  To max out their revenue during this slow weekend, even the two big horror movies went wide last weekend.  Saw VI and Paranormal Activity should continue to see healthy grosses this weekend, as audiences get into the Halloween spirit.

Michael Jackson, of course, does have creepy song "Thriller" in his repertoire, and This Is It (3,481 theatres) includes a graveyard, zombie-walking sequence set to the song.  The concert documentary kicked off its two-week engagement on Wednesday, earning $7.4 million domestically its opening day.  With no other wide releases opening this weekend, This Is It may pick up some extra business to supplement its solid, but not stellar opening.

Opening on just three screens, The House of the Devil is a retro '80's throwback, taking place in the time period "for no apparent reason other than writer-director-editor Ti West doesn't want mobile phones to gum up his feeble plot."  Devoid of scares, "it borrows literally from a well-known horror film made by a guy in a Swiss jail."  So for those of you who have seen Rosemary's Baby, this movie may be a pass.

Director Jared Hess follows up Napoleon Dynamite and Nacho Libre with Gentlemen Broncos, which is receiving a quiet theatrical release in two locations.  The movie's "unrelenting strangeness" may make it better suited to a DVD release, where those that enjoy the movie can recommend it to their like-minded friends.

A "bloated follow-up" to the cult hit, The Boondock Saints II: All Saints Day  (68 theatres) also seems more suited to the DVD market.  Critic Michael Rechtshaffen predicted it won't turn a profit for its distributor "until the Saints go marching back into the video store."  Its mix of violence and comedy comes across as a cartoonish "Godfather III meets The Three Stooges," so those curious about the combination should check it out.

Based on the true story of a phenotypically black child born to white Afrikaners, Skin features such a striking genetic anomaly our critic Ethan Alter felt it would be more powerful as a documentary.  While he praises Sophie Okonedo's performance, "there's an artificiality to the proceedings" that "a documentary would likely have been able to circumvent."

On Monday, we'll see if This Is It held on through the weekend, and if the horror movies are able to draw crowds in spite of the wealth of off-screen spooky options.

'Saw VI' and 'Paranormal Activity' battle for scares

This week's extra-scary throwdown features horror titles Saw VI, opening in 3,036 theatres, and Paranormal Activity, which is expanding to 1,945 theatres.  All five Saw movies opened above $30 million, but competition from Paranormal could cut that figure.  If Paranormal's per-screen average drops another 50%, it will come in at $24 million.  Saw VI is tracking best among young males (perhaps the horror fans who have already seen Paranormal), while Paranormal Activity has broader appeal that extends to women and older males.  If teens are going in big groups to see the movie, will the crowd-pleaser prevail, or will they go for something all of them haven't seen?

Amelia opens in 818 theatres, the kind of small-scale distribution that characterizes many Fox Searchlight releases.  Critic Ray Bennett praised the "classically structured bio," but other reviewers have been less kind to the traditional approach, which seemed antiseptic to some.  "Bathed in golden light, Amelia and G. P. [her husband] are as pretty as a framed picture and as inert," lamented New York Times critic Manohla Dargis.

Animated Astro Boy (3,014 theatres) will compete with last week's box-office winner, Where the Wild Things Are.  "Visually dynamic if  overly eager-to-please," according to critic Michael Rechtshaffen, the family-oriented movie is based on a manga originally published in Japan in 1951, and also draws from its numerous adaptations.

Cirque du Freak: The Vampire's Assistant opens on 2,754 screens, but appears too bloodless to cash in on current vamp chic.  Critic Kirk Honeycutt called director Paul Weitz "miscast."  It's also a PG-13 movie that skews younger, not older, fracturing its audience.  "Miscalculation runs through the entire movie," which is destined for a lackluster open.

Among specialty releases, Antichrist, a film that is "in no danger of jeopardizing [Lars von Trier's] reign as the most controversial major filmmaker working today," according to critic Peter Brunette, will open on six screens.  Uma Thurman's Motherhood, small in scope but well-rendered, will open on 46 screens.  Coming in below the radar, a 3D re-release of Tim Burton's The Nightmare Before Christmas will be shown on 105 screens, unlike the recent release of Toy Story/Toy Story 2 3D, which opened on many more screens with greater marketing support.

On Monday, we'll circle back to see if fresh horror or viral buzz won over the box office, if Amelia soared above its reviews, and if Astro Boy could woo families away from Where the Wild Things Are and Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs.

A 'Wild' weekend at the box office awaits

Where the Wild Things Are, Spike Jonze's children's movie that's much different from what we've come to expect from children's movies, will open today in a huge 3,735 screen release.  Besides kids, the movie has a huge fan base of 20 and 30-somethings who grew up with the Maurice Sendak book.  The fact that Jonze's adaptation is regarded as "adult" could help bring in those crowds.  Critical reception has been mixed, and it's uncertain whether theatregoers will relay the good or bad parts of the film to their friends.  This weekend, projections are putting the film's weekend take at $25 million, and its release in IMAX should help bring it to that number.

Law Abiding Citizen (2,899 theatres) may have a mere 16% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, but according to critic Kirk Honeycutt, the thriller "create[s] sufficient tension and intrigue to hook viewers along with a photogenic, hard-working cast," making it a likely candidate for a solid, if unimpressive box-office performance.

Starring teen heartthrob Penn Badgely from "Gossip Girl," The Stepfather (2,734 theatres) is wish fulfillment for children of divorced parents.  Because when your stepfather yells "Your Mother said 'Turn that down,' son," it really means he's a psycho serial killer who marries divorced women then kills off their families.

The teen horror movie could have some competition from Paranormal Activity, which is expanding to 760 theatres this week.  If it were to replicate its $49,000 per screen from last week, it would bring in $37 million.  While it's unlikely to maintain that per-screen level when it expands, I wouldn't be surprised if it creeps much closer to Where the Wild Things Are than expected.

On the specialty front, New York, I Love You releases in 119 theatres.  Our critic Erica Abeel found it to be better than Paris, Je T'Aime, noting that "most of these linked 'shorts' succeed remarkably in nailing the serendipitous flavor of love, New York-style."  Newbie distributor Apparition will release blaxploitation parody Black Dynamite in 70 theatres.  Critic James Greenberg appraised that "even if it's a one-joke movie that runs out of steam, director Scott Sanders manages to keep the gag going for 90 minutes," though he wondered if younger audiences who didn't grow up with blaxploitation would get the joke.

On Monday we'll see if Where the Wild Things Are made audiences roar as loudly as predicted, if Paranormal Activity's screams died down or amped up, and whether Law Abiding Citizen and The Stepfather were able to entice those interested in a run-of-the-mill thriller or horror movie.