Screener

It's the movies, not the popcorn, that will be stale in early 2010

Conventional wisdom says that the more you move around and/or delay a movie's release date, the worse it is.  It's mostly, but not always, true. 

The New York Times published an article this week about the many movies releasing in January and February that were put in production over a year ago.  In fact, 16 of the 28 movies went into production in 2008 or earlier, well above the typical timeline for movies, which usually release a year after production.  Lines of reasoning differ.  Youth in Revolt (coming out 1/8/10), for example, was hampered by the financial difficulties of its distributor, Weinstein Co.  The Green Zone, about the war in Iraq, may have been moved for topical reasons, but with all the trouble Iraq-themed movies have had at the box office, it also may be just plain out of touch.  The last-minute move of Martin Scorsese's Shutter Island to February 19th from this holiday season is a little trickier to decipher.  I think the upcoming thriller is either A) bad B) weird in a good way or C) good, but the studio lost confidence in it.

I have a particular interest in movie musical chairs because part of my job here at Film Journal involves keeping track of movie release dates.  Every week I update our database of release dates, viewable online here in case you want to look up something.  I've learned that not only does it matter if you change a movie's release date, it matters where you move it to, and how many times you change your mind.

Some movies vacillate between a few dates, and it's not unusual for them to return to a spot they held earlier.  This often means little, just indecision on the part of the studios.  Others seem to stalk towards their eventual (later) release date, getting moved farther and farther away until no one (they hope) realizes the movie was supposed to be out a year ago.  Studios are either delaying the inevitable for another quarter or using the movie as filler, a placeholder to shove into a quiet weekend. 

If two blockbusters are scheduled for the same release date, they sometimes play a game of chicken until the other one moves, but they're still contending for the prime summer and end-of-year spots.  When I see a movie or would-be blockbuster move from a summer or winter holiday release to January, February, or September, I'm instantly suspicious.  Case in point: The Wolfman, which will come out on February 12th after a year of delays.  While studios are starting to put watchable movies into these dead time zones as all forms of media move away from the rerun and second-run model, the best strategy for the early winter will be to catch up on another stale, but delicious treat: the holiday releases.

A few good films in 2009

Perhaps it’s the part of me that grew up in a world where “participant” ribbons were a standard consolation prize, but I wanted my top ten of 2009 to include some movies that won’t be seeing much play at the Oscars or in other top tens, but are good films in their own right.  In particular, I wanted to reward fine genre works, whether it was an arthouse take on a police procedural (Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans) or that rarest of the rare, a comedy that makes me laugh out loud (almost all of those made the list).

The Hangover: This is not an Oscar comedy.  It’s not dark and ironic, the protagonists are young, it made lots of money, and it’s definitely, definitely not “quiet” or “black.”  The raunchy comedy earns my top honors because instead of that cringe-worthy tactic of having its characters get into deeper and deeper trouble for laughs (a no-no for sensitive souls like myself), it created humor from having its characters try to pick up all the pieces.  Miraculously, it managed to find new ways to shock audiences, and it had the best missing big cat since Bringing Up Baby.

Avatar: James Cameron’s work feels like the sci-fi epics I loved growing up: movies like Jurassic Park and Independence Day that broke new technological ground and backed it up with a winning story (though I’m not sure how well Independence Day holds up today).  Cameron is a master at his craft, and no adult will look at 3D the same way.  Bonus points for its environmental bent.

I Love You, Man: Another innovative comedy that turned romantic comedy conventions on their head and used the “falling in love” montage for the film’s bromance.  Its Rotten Tomato rating (in the eighties) is higher than most “awards” films, but it’s received little end-of-the-year love.  Having suffered through many terrible romantic comedies this year, it was a pleasure to watch something that was actually laugh-out-loud funny, and a welcome addition to the Judd Apatow-style comedy-bromance genre.

(500) Days of Summer: My indulgent, hipster choice.  Young love has never been so ebullient than in this film that mixed up its chronology to make its kiss 'n break-up story novel.  Its fantastic musical sequence (staged by director Marc Webb, a veteran of music videos) was proof that good things can come from music video-influenced films.  It also violated the most important romcom trope: getting together at the end.

Thirst:  Stylistically rigorous, this vampire tale is far, far from New Moon.  Its scenes of sex and violence will have you wriggling in your seat in discomfort, but director Chan-wook Park (Oldboy) is truly a master at his craft, taking Asian horror to an artistic high, with a bit of a moralistic bent.

Up: Best thing about Up, #1: It makes you cry.  Instead of adding double entendres for adult laughs, Pixar used the wide age range of its audience to make older viewers cry.  The little kids next to me didn’t get it, but I was wiping away tears underneath my 3D glasses. Best thing about Up, #2?  It makes you laugh.  The talking dogs were my most memorable chuckle of the year.

Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans: I thought I was so sick of police procedurals, but Nicolas Cage brings the genre back with the baddest, most insane performance of the year.  The seediness of New Orleans post-Hurricane Katrina is made absurd by director Werner Herzog’s inclusion of iguana point-of-view shots and the depictions of off-the-cuff abuse of power and drugs.  A strange, strange movie, in all the right ways.

Precious: Based on the Novel ‘Push’ by Sapphire: A tearjerker with equal parts horror and heart.  Precious’ world is so foreign to most of us, but director Lee Daniels makes it even more of a nightmare with his use of dream sequences and subjective point-of-view.  Mo’Nique put in a jaw-dropping performance, and her final monologue is a gutsy move made by Daniels that raises more questions than it answers.

Up in the Air: Yes, this is one that’s on a lot of top ten lists, and its tone of comedy mixed with anomie comes straight from the Academy playbook.  But it’s good.  My favorite sequence was when George Clooney, Vera Farmiga and Anna Kendrick form their unlikely trio, learning from each other and crashing a party.

Food, Inc.:  A well-researched complement to Super Size Me and Fast Food Nation, this documentary covered the food industry from moo to mouth and back again.  I spouted “Did you know…?” to friends and families for weeks based on what I learned about the food industry. It’s already out on DVD, calling out to me for a second viewing.

Why stop at top ten when there are a few films that deserve honorable mentions, but didn't make it into my rather loose list.  An Education: The debut of Carey Mulligan with a fantastic performance from Rosamund Pike.  Pike’s glamorous and perfectly assembled look made her as attractive to adult-pining Mulligan as Peter Sarsgaard.  The Cove: Environmental activism meets Ocean’s 11, so controversial it had a hard time playing in Japan.  And they're feeding dolphins to your children!   The Young Victoria: a decidedly unstuffy costume drama and romance that should make Emily Blunt a star.

'Sherlock Holmes' no match for 'Avatar'

A record-breaking $278 million week at the box office was led by Avatar, with the rest of the top ten following closely behind with strong debut and holdover performances.  The sci-fi spectacle's second week was just as strong as its first, dropping a minuscule 2% from its opening weekend to earn $75 million.  The movie posted its highest one-day gross the day after Christmas, when it earned $28.5 million, compared to the smaller $26.7 million sum it brought in its opening day.  Unlike most other tentpoles, which are adaptations of successful books, series, or comic books, Avatar had to tough through a lower opening and wait for word-of-mouth to build up.  In light of Avatar's success, perhaps other filmmakers besides James Cameron will be able to follow in his wake and develop tentpoles based on original ideas.  Fox, however, won't have to take on much risk if it moves forward with a sequel or two: Cameron has mentioned that he has already mapped out a multi-movie arc for his characters.

Coming in second place for the weekend, action-detective movie Sherlock Holmes beat Avatar its opening day, Christmas, but dropped off over the weekend.  The movie earned $65.3 million, about $10 million under Avatar's gross.  While the movie's hero and his iconic pipe-smoking habit is more familiar to audiences, Avatar delivers on its premise much more than Sherlock Holmes, which lost points with me for its overuse of action movie conventions.

Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel came in third with $50.2 million.  Because it opened on Wednesday, its total gross is already $77 million, which is far outpacing the first movie in the series, which opened to $44 million.

Writer/director Nancy Meyers' latest installment in the romantic comedy department, It's Complicated, opened fourth with $22.1 million.  Her last two films, The Holiday and Something's Gotta Give, both opened in the teens, so this marks her best opening since 2000's What Women Want, which debuted at $33 million.

Of the films placing fifth to tenth, all were returning films, and three of the five increased their grosses from the previous week.  Up in the Air went from 175 to 1,895 theatres and earned $11.75 million, a 266% increase from the previous week.  The Blind Side rose 17% to $11.73 million even as it shed over 600 theatres, further cementing its status as a surprise word-of-mouth hit.  Nine, in eighth place, increased 2000% to $5.5 million as it went from four theatres to 1,412 theatres.  In tenth place, Invictus, which only added 35 theatres to its 2,160-theatre release, inched up 4% from the previous week.  The remaining two films in the top ten, The Princess and the Frog and Did You Hear About the Morgans?, dropped in the 20-30% range.  In particular, The Princess and the Frog may be hurting from competition with the Chipmunks and Chipettes.

Now that all the big films of 2009 have been released, the first month of 2010 will measure their longevity.  Competition from new releases will be minimal, but for awards films, it's a long haul to the Oscar ceremony, which was moved from February to March this year.

Holiday movies to bring joy to end-of-year revelers

Moviegoing during the holidays is more than just a way to pass time off from school and work: it's a tradition.  What better way to break up family tension than seeing a movie together--especially at a multiplex, where disagreeing groups can choose different movies?  This year the usual mix of popcorn and awards fare will swoop into theatres tomorrow and again on Christmas Day, adding to the already heaping offerings, including mega-budget Avatar.

Tomorrow, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel will roll out in 3,700 theatres.  The original opened a couple weeks before Christmas to a $44 million weekend, and did big business through the holidays.  With animated competitor The Princess and the Frog fading, and a media campaign that includes a hilarious chipmunk rendition of Beyonce's "Single Ladies," the comedy is sure to appeal to adults (perhaps the ones that create YouTube videos of their children dancing to the song).

The other big crowd pleaser is Sherlock Holmes, which targets a big chunk of Avatar's audience.  Robert Downey, Jr. and Jude Law play "action heroes in a tale stripped of modulations, intelligence and finesse."  Having seen the movie a few weeks ago, my memory of the film is not aging well.  The action set pieces feel worn and unoriginal, including a cliched standoff on an unfinished bridge.  Much of the set design is filled in with CG, and the movie lacks the satisfying details that fill out our understanding of Holmes' world and character.  Nevertheless, marrying action sensibilities to a historical character will make Holmes and Watson fresh with no chance of being mistaken for "Masterpiece Theatre."  The comic-action movie will draw action-hungry crowds when it debuts in 3,600 theatres.

Adult romantic comedy It's Complicated will open on the small side on Christmas Day, 2,800 theatres.  The movie has received heavy media coverage, including a director profile in the New York Times Magazine about making movies for women.  With its erudite interest, the movie could be a mainstream choice for audiences normally drawn to awards and specialty fare.

The holiday season is also time for specialty releases to open wide to take advantage of the increased attendance.  Awards favorite Up In the Air will expand to 1,800 theatres, and Nine to 1,500.  Up in the Air has been steadily climbing in the rankings, breaking into the top ten for the past two weeks, so its expansion should lead to an uptick in its box office and ranking.  Nine, only out for one week, will be more of a wild card.  Will female audiences choose It's Complicated over Nine?

Also sneaking into the holiday schedule will be the debut of "cinematically sophisticated but slow-moving police procedural," Police, Adjective, in IFC theatres.  The Young Victoria will expand to 134 theatres.  The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus, which features a performance from Heath Ledger, will also debut on Christmas Day.  The Lovely Bones and A Single Man will also add theatres to their run.  With a crowded slate of film delicacies, one hopes that people will have the time to sample more than one holiday offering.

Screener is off to drink some eggnog, so we'll see you back on December 28th with a recap of holiday box office performance.

'Avatar's' $73 million opening weekend puts pressure on week to come

Avatar faced snowstorms all along the East Coast its opening weekend, dampening its first returns.  Still, the movie racked up $73 million, and should see high weekday returns for the next two weeks, which many people have off.  It was bested by 2007's December release I Am Legend, which brought in $77 million, but the two films' per-screen averages were neck and neck.  Both earned $21,000 per screen, since I Am Legend had 700 more screens in its release.  Still, since viewers were paying more to see the movie in 3D, Avatar's theatres were probably less full.

Given the positive word-of-mouth on the 3D adventure, Avatar should continue do well as word catches on.  3D has mainly been the realm of family movies, so many viewers may need quality reassurance from their friends before they don the glasses themselves.  Overseas, the movie earned $159 million worldwide, where director James Cameron's famous tin ear for dialogue is lost in translation.  While most movies end up with half their gross from overseas, Avatar currently has 70% of its gross from outside North America, making hiccups like East Coast snowstorms less significant.

The other wide release of the week, Did You Hear About the Morgans?, underperformed slightly, earning $7 million.  Some of those moviegoers undoubtedly chose The Blind Side instead, which finished a spot ahead with $10 million.

The biggest mover in the rest of the top ten was Up in the Air, which gained three spots when it more than doubled the theatres in its release.  Playing in 175 theatres, it earned $3.1 million.  Its per-screen average of $17,000 was the best of any returning film.

Golden Globe contenders Nine, Crazy Heart, and The Young Victoria debuted this week.  Nine had the best per-screen average, $61,000, and a four-screen release.  Crazy Heart came in second with a $21,000 per-screen average, also at four locations.  The Young Victoria had a different strategy, releasing in twenty locations, which brought its per-screen average down to $7,000.  It made more money than Crazy Heart, however, due to the size of its release.

In just two days, Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel will open, followed by Sherlock Holmes and It's Complicated on Christmas Day.  'Tis the season.

Oh Avatar, oh Avatar, lead audiences to Pandora

Leading the pack this week is Avatar (3,300 theatres), a blockbuster that delivers on its promise to wow you.  Even if you come into the theatre a little bit of a disbeliever, you will walk out thrilled and satisfied in a way you haven't been for a long time.  Director James Cameron uses his state-of-the-art technology to create a movie that critic Ethan Alter called "the ultimate pulp sci-fi novel."  It's also a take-off of the Pocahontas tale.  Cameron first wows you with the technical achievements of the year 2154--portable computer tablets, futuristic 'copters, and coffin-like "link stations"--before turning your attention to the Na'vi, who display a similarly detailed, technical mastery over the natural world instead of the mechanical world.  Add in romance and some spectacular battle scenes, and Fox should have its end-of-year blockbuster.

Providing some counterprogramming for women, Did You Hear About the Morgans? (2,700 theatres) is a by-the-book romantic comedy with some mild laughs.  Inoffensive and pleasing through its duration, the movie is expected to draw in females not enticed by Avatar.  Fans of "Sex and the City" will be pleased to see a continuation of that persona in Parker's character, who loves all things New York City, to the predictably comic extremes.

Crazy Heart (4 theatres) also makes its limited debut this weekend.  "Although the film offers the [lead] character a too-glib redemption (and no-fuss rehab) before sending him off into a feel-good sunset," critic Rex Roberts feels it nevertheless deserves recognition.  Indeed, this week the country music drama earned two nominations at the Golden Globes: Best Actor for Jeff Bridges and Best Original Song.  Bridges has been nominated for four Oscars (though, surprise, not for his role in the comedy The Big Lebowski), so the Academy may deem it time to reward ones of its perennial nominees-- one with "an uncanny ability to make pot-bellied rogues curiously sexy."

Nine (4 theatres) parades into theatres after receiving decidedly mixed reviews filled with many of the caveats that are unique to the difficult musical category.  Despite running at 32% on Rotten Tomatoes, the Broadway adaptation received five nominations for the Golden Globes earlier this week.  Our critic David Noh marveled at the non-misogynistic treatment of women in a story centered around a man and the many women who matter to him.  "Marshall clearly adores women," Noh writes, "and he glorifies each carefully cast lady in his film in a way not seen since the Hollywood studio glory days."

Avatar should finish in the 50, 60, 70 million range (Fox is trying to underplay expectations) and play strongly through the next two weeks, when many people are on holiday from work and school.  Did You Hear About the Morgans? should be light competition, and could suffer from the strong showing of The Blind Side, which has a lot of word-of-mouth momentum.  Avatar needs a strong opening weekend to stave off the competition ahead.  Next week, the sci-fi movie will go head-to-head with Sherlock Holmes, It's Complicated will try to woo away the female audience, and let's not forget the allure of Alvin and the Chipmunks: The Squeakquel.

Movie-related Twitters more bark than bite

Twitter has been this year's media darling, especially among influencers like media personalities, celebrities, and journalists.  But the 140-character updates on whereabouts, opinions, and random thoughts haven't really changed how people choose what movies to see.

A recent survey of Movietickets.com customers who had just bought tickets online and were Twitter users revealed a modest effect.  When asked, "Did Twitter affect your desire to see any of the following films in the past year?," New Moon ranked highest, with 52% responding yes.

According to Joel Cohen, VP of MovieTickets.com, Twitter added to the buzz of the New Moon campaign.  The studio would release a new trailer, posters, or clips every few weeks, encouraging the Internet community to weigh in on the new information.  "Twitter gives people the ability to share what they think, and let it spread quickly," he explained.

However, the second film on the list received half the amount of "yes" votes.  Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen earned just 23% of the vote.  The much-hyped Bruno, which many said was felled by negative Twitter buzz?  Only 8% said it influenced their desire to see the film one way or the other.  Twitter, it turns out, has a fairly limited impact on box office, a view shared by Cohen.  "I don’t think you’re going to have a change in moviegoing if  people read something on Twitter that is the opposite of what they were going to do anyway or what they were feeling already."  Instead, it reflects the general consensus of whether a film is "good" or "bad."

Cohen also gave Screener a sneak peak at how Avatar is doing.  So far, 78% of the buyers have been male.  The vast majority of ticket buyers fall into the over 25 range--though all this information reflects the people taking initiative and punching in their credit card numbers, and not any additional tickets they may have bought for friends, significant others, and children.

Over 90% of the tickets have been purchased for 3D screenings.  "This will be the first time a lot of adults have seen 3D," Cohen explained, since most 3D titles have been animated films.  Their embrace of the medium, sight unseen, bodes well for Avatar, especially given the premium prices on 3D and IMAX tickets.

However, the mega-budget tentpole hasn't even cracked their top ten of bestsellers, despite a lead time of over four months (tickets went on sale in August). "It just doesn't have the built-in fan base we see in a lot films in our top ten," Cohen explained, which include literary properties like Harry Potter and Twilight.

When Avatar hits theatres tomorrow, the Twitterati should not be feared.  They're just another form of word-of-mouth--available to all the eyes on the Internet but mattering to very few.

Golden Globe nominations a mixed bag for female directors

Today the Golden Globe Nominations were announced, and, as usual, there weren't quite enough nominations to cover all the great performances (in particular, Nicolas Cage's crazy-amazing performance in Bad Lieutenant: Port of Call New Orleans).  Inspired by New York Times critic Manohla Dargis' recent documentation of the lack of female directors in Hollywood, particularly for studio films, I also decided to tally up the nominations for female-directed movies.  Results and analysis follow.

The Takeaways

* Golden Globes reward more female directors, but this is because its picture and acting nominations are genre-specific: "Best Drama" and "Best Comedy/Musical."  More females direct in the latter category, allowing them to rack up more nominations.  When it comes to the Oscars, however, the majority of the nominees usually come from the more prestigious "Drama" category.

*Of the twenty films nominated for a form of Best Picture (Drama, Comedy/Musical, Animated, Foreign Language), three were directed by a female.  Kathryn Bigelow recieved a nomination in the Drama category, and Nora Ephron and Nancy Meyers were nominated in the Comedy/Musical category.  This is slightly higher than the 60 females out of 600 directors (10%) that Dargis figured for 2009, but given the small sample size, this isn't significant.

*Zero of the ten "Best Actor" nominees were directed by females.  Four of the ten "Best Actor" nominees were directed by females, including two directors not nominated in the "Best Picture" categories.  Sandra Bullock was nominated for her performance in Anne Fletcher's The Proposal and Carey Mulligan for Lone Scherfig's An Education.  This correlation is difficult to judge, but it could reflect a well-known Hollywood bias that female directors are only offered women's films.

*One female, Kathryn Bigelow, was nominated for "Best Director."  She's running against her ex-husband, James Cameron (Avatar).

Bigelow, the sole director to receive a nomination for "Best Director," was highlighted by Dargis as an example of Hollywood's unequal treatment of female directors.  Before Hurt Locker, she hadn't directed a film since 2002.  Dargis compares her to director Michael Mann, who was in a similar standing to her at the time.  Both directed films (Ali and K19: The Widowmaker, respectively) in the early aughts that underperformed. 

Dargis writes, "What did a $22 million difference in box office mean for the directors of “Ali” and “K-19”? Well, Ms. Bigelow didn’t direct another feature until 2007, when she began “The Hurt Locker,” a thriller about a bomb squad in Iraq that was bankrolled by a French company and is said to cost under $20 million." Mann, by comparison, directed three big-budget movies, and produced several more--all a mix of hits (Collateral) and misses (Miami Vice).  She goes on to say,

"I imagine there are a host of reasons why Mr. Mann has been able to persuade executives to keep writing such large checks. He’s a dazzling innovator, and big stars keep flocking to his side, despite his reputation for difficulty. But Ms. Bigelow is one of the greatest action directors working today, and it’s hard not to wonder why failure at the box office doesn’t translate the same for the two sexes."

Dargis seems to have drawn the conclusion that women are held to higher standards than men, and have to be that much better in this position in order to succeed. 

The other key to equality in film direction is making projects open to both male and female directors.  Lee Daniels directed a great film (Precious) with a female cast, just as Kathryn Bigelow has distinguished herself for her "testosterone" action film.  Besides Bigelow, Scherfig (An Education) and Jane Campion (Bright Star) have been mentioned as the standout directors of the year, but their films' lack of nominations could push them out of the running.  Bigelow's nomination for The Hurt Locker makes her chance of being nominated for Best Director at the Oscars that much more likely.

'Princess and the Frog' reigns over the box office

Opening precisely in line with expectations, The Princess and the Frog earned $25 million in its first week in wide release.  The movie skewed towards females and those under 25.  Although this is Disney's first movie with a black princess, the studio said they didn't track ethnicity in its polls, perhaps because they didn't want this film's performance to be gauged according to its appeal among black audiences.

The Blind Side had another stellar weekend, dropping a slim 22% to earn another $15.4 million.  The modestly budgeted movie has brought in over $150 million, making it an end-of-year success story.

The other movie trying to marry sports to a more weighty subject, Invictus, opened to just $9 million.  Two of Clint Eastwood's recent directorial projects, Gran Torino and Million Dollar Baby, used long platform releases, making comparison difficult.  Changeling, however, opened in a small number of theatres before expanding to a $9 million weekend.  Its cumulative gross? $35 million.  A similar fate may be in store for Invictus, but its superior reviews to Changeling (77% on Rotten Tomatoes to Changeling's 61%) could push it above the 2008 film's total.

Weinstein Co.'s A Single Man debuted in 9 theatres to a per-screen average of $24,000.  The Lovely Bones, on four screens, had a per-screen average of $38,600, but its cumulative gross was $116,000 to A Single Man's $216,000.  Each came from a different corner of the film marketplace.  A Single Man is a recent festival acquisition that went straight from its September premiere in Toronto to theatres this December.  It's a quiet film that has generated substantial praise from critics.  The Lovely Bones was a big-budget adaptation, but the movie's most expensive parts--the CGI sequences--have been greeted with noses wrinkled in disgust.  Rolling Stone compared Jackson's heaven to a Claritin commercial.  This movie ranks among my biggest disappointments this year, but its solid opening bodes well for its box office.

Up in the Air nudged closer to the top ten this weekend, adding 57 theatres for a 72-theatre run.  It earned $2.4 million and an impressive $34,000 per screen.  The layoff-centered comedy has been accruing a sizable amount of nominations and awards.  From my perspective, it's a shoo-in for one of the ten Best Picture nods.

This Friday, all eyes will be on Avatar's premiere, with romantic comedy Did You Hear About the Morgans? providing some counter-programming.  Nine and Crazy Heart will also make their debut on select screens.

'The Princess and the Frog' to charm its way to box-office crown

South Africa and the Bayou will take center stage this weekend, as Invictus and The Princess and the Frog roll out in wide release.

The Princess and the Frog (3,434 theatres) is the Disney machine at its nostalgic finest--which includes incredible attention to detail, especially when it comes to possible revenue streams.  For the past two and a half weeks, the movie has racked up $2.7 million by creating a full-fledged event involving character meet-and-greets, behind-the-scenes glimpses, and the opportunity to stock up on Princess-related merchandising--all for $50 per head.  Only Disney could pull together its filmmaking, theme park, and merchandising experience so well.  The movie itself should make a killing, especially since many of those who grew up on Beauty and the Beast are now parents themselves.  It's expected to open around $25 million, but the strength of its reviews, including an 82% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, could give families that extra push to see it in theatres.

Invictus (2,125 theatres) is expected to open modestly but keep up its pace for many weeks ahead.  Positive reviews, along with a 76% approval rating on Rotten Tomatoes, should reward the historical drama at the box office as well as the Oscars, though the first category, in this case, is a little more tricky.  Our critic Daniel Eagan praised the film as "one of the most mature and satisfying releases of the year," but cautioned that its "challenging subject matter and a crowded holiday marketplace" could see it end up more like Million Dollar Baby than Gran Torino.

The Lovely Bones will roll out in three theatres before expanding over Christmas and then again in mid-January.  I posted my scathing assessment of the film yesterday, joining the critical chorus of dissent.  According to executive editor Kevin Lally, director Peter Jackson's "expensive production and dazzling visual effects aren’t the ideal fit for [author Alice] Sebold’s delicate, poignant tale," and the "admittedly impressive but overdone fantasy panoramas" take away the "heart and soul" of the novel.  While many of those who read the book will turn out for the movie, they will rank among the most disappointed.  By delaying a wide open until early January, however, the movie may be able to take advantage of being a film of its relative quality amidst the January slush.

Fashion designer-turned-director Tom Ford makes his debut with A Single Man, a quiet, expressive film about mourning.  Colin Firth plays a closeted gay professor left alone when his partner dies in a car accident.  With no one to mourn with, and few understanding the depth of his despair, he goes through a defining day of odd encounters and personal evaluation.  Ford's presence is seen in the attentive costuming, changing color palette, and set design, which manages to add something new to the way most movies portray the 1960s (a glimpse of some black-wearing 60s college-age Goths, for example).  The movie opens in nine theatres and should set audiences abuzz.

On Monday, The Princess and the Frog will know the expanse of her reign, Invictus will battle for opening weekend dollars, and holdovers The Blind Side and New Moon will prepare for a dip after three weeks at the top.